So, when do we sell?

I don't really plan to sell most of my long term spot bags as I fully expect $BTC, $ETH and $SOL to trade significantly higher a decade from now.

But I do have leverage and sh1tcoins, so it's always good to know what you'll do.

These are my exit signals:

1) Funding Rate Heat Map

https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRateHeatMap

Historically, I cannot remember the market putting in a significant top till this map showed yellow and orange for about a week and a half. When that happens, you can be sure that I will cut my leverage.

Entrepreneur, Investor & Hockey Player. #bitcoin & #crypto since '13. Opinions, never investment advice. Beat Wizardry 7 before you were born. 🏳️‍🌈

2) Retail Enthusiasm

Coinbase App Store Position: https://t.me/coinbaseappstore
Phantom App Store Position:
https://t.me/phantom_appstore

Generally speaking, when popular crypto apps hit the number 1 spot, Bull markets are in their very last leg. Usually there is about 10 days left.

3) Tether Premium

Whenever real demand is strong, $BTC (and $ETH) price in USD is typically higher than $USDT price. It means money coming into the market. Since Trump got elected, we've seen a steady Tether discount. If this flips for more than a few days, I lighten positions.

4) Consolidation Drift

In strong Bull markets, periods of digestion will trend upwards (ie higher lows). When this changes to consolidations beginning to make lower highs instead, I will consider reducing positions.

5) Bitcoin Dominance

During all Bull markets, there comes a period when $BTC dominance falls by a large amount (30% or so) quickly. It is often the last leg when everyone gets excited about the newes alts. When $BTC dominance falls to 40%ish again, I will consider selling alts.

6) The bubble roof

If we are in a bublle (I don't think we are), these typically end in a violent break out of an already steap upwards channel and price rises 100% in a short time. Then it falls through all previous levels. If this the case now, $BTC would rise to $130k ish.

7) Macro considerations

This is difficult. I look at liquidity as published by Cross Border and also have my own expectations re Inflation (I think AI will reduce services inflation massively) and debt issues in the US (I think the US Dollar will have a problem). We'll see.

I summarized a lot of this in an article on trading a while back. It is still more or less what I use, I only added to this, if you want to read more:

One addition: I tend to sell 1/3 of my holdings whenever I make a good amount of profit that I really don't want to give back completely. Ideally that 1/3 is what I put in, but obviously that is tough, so typically if I make 50% or so, I take 1/3 out. Just to not lose it all.

Not advice

I summarized a lot of this in an article on trading a while back. It is still more or less what I use, I only added to this, if you want to read more:

https://t.co/T4LGsoA9j3