uncertainty

Polymarket

The only problem is externality pricing.

Building https://negationgame.com

A subsidy would help, but not sure how much it would mitigate this. E.g. trader might have good info that Kamala is likely to lose but still buy "win" on the prediction markets as a hedge

Root of the problem is a trader's primary goal is to make money, not to provide signal to a market, and you don't get to see all the trader's "off-balance sheet" items

Everyone is optimizing for their own incentives, and you never get to see all the inputs to their incentive function

They have no obligation to provide signal to you, or affirm the particular way you are platonifying the world

Everyone is optimizing for their own incentives, and you never get to see all the inputs to their incentive function

They have no obligation to provide signal to you, or affirm the particular way you are platonifying the world

https://warpcast.com/dinesh.eth/0x87ca163d