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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
1/ I have experienced, and can relate to, some version of Taleb’s conjecture (https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1839063309133226102). A short 🧵
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Dinesh Raju
@dinesh.eth
Also worth keeping in mind that just predicting an event correctly isn't enough. You need to know both the event and the *positioning of the market* to predict how the market will move
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Dinesh Raju
@dinesh.eth
You can see this at the top of a bull market The market turns not because people get bearish or bad events are happening. It goes down because of the positioning of the market, i.e. there are fewer buyers today compared to yesterday. There are fewer people left to buy, even though everyone is still as euphoric
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