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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
If the last ten years have taught me anything, it’s the importance of patience and thoughtfulness in decision making. I used to hold a double-digit stack of BTC, and sold them all in 2015 in protest of both the project’s technical direction (small blocks, Segwit, Lightning, etc.) and abusive straying from its cypherpunk roots (censorship, Blockstream’s capture, etc). In hindsight, it was an expensive mistake, because the upside of hodling (now I the millions of dollars) was at least two orders of magnitudes greater than the downside (tens of thousands). I wish I had read Antifragile and learned to navigate asymmetrical bets sooner. Not long after, I also resigned in protest of being passed for Partner promotion at a Big Four, against the advice of my peers. I eventually made it at a different firm, but I took a needlessly circuitous route to get there. 1/3
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Dinesh Raju
@dinesh.eth
Would love to chat more with you about this but social media isn't the right medium, so made a note of it for the next time we meet! Since you mention Taleb, I'll leave you with a couple of thoughts till then: I personally would be very hesitant to evaluate the robustness of my decision making based on what I remember about the past. Taleb calls this the "triplet of opacity": https://dinesh.eth.link/notes/the-black-swan/#the-human-mind I wouldn't yet consider BTC and Elon a success because of the deviation between the sample mean and shadow mean caused by the hidden generator. For a quick intro, can start at 1:23:10 here: https://youtu.be/cP5tQGWagKc?t=4990
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