your friendly neighborhood IC

I love @polymarket

Still doing its job so damn well

Immediate uptick from a 68% to an 87% chance of a rate cut on the release of unemployment numbers at 8:30am sharp

Counterargument: this proves prediction markets arent predicting  anything. Everyone updates their model when new information is given. 

PMs should be leading not lagging indicators. No movement all week until post-facto

Building/playing a self-actualization game based on tamagotchi /jinni 🧞

Leading @zujapan

Clojurist, interactive artist & adorable cryptoanarchist 😽

I would argue that they are leading indicators. Even before the jump to 86%, odds were sitting at 70% - so it was still showing a leading signal of a prediction

Of course we won't know until after the events happen how accurate they are, but I do think it's doing its job of showing leading odds

I do personally believe that Polymarket is a better predictor of events than other sources of information
But my main point is that Polymarket is the best source of market sentiment, adjusting in real-time to new information

The game is always to have more accurate predictions about the future
Polymarket is a fantastic tool, but it's still up to each of us to make the final call