Sam Iglesias pfp
Sam Iglesias
@sam
Can anybody explain why polymarket and predictit sustain such different prices? Finding these differences wildly implausible.
11 replies
2 recasts
143 reactions

Zach pfp
Zach
@zachterrell
because prediction markets aren’t actually accurate historically speaking
2 replies
0 recast
0 reaction

brendan.base.eth pfp
brendan.base.eth
@defi-brendan
Actually prediction markets have been shown to be quite accurate, at least as good as expert pollsters. Section Section 2.4 here for links to studies: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq?open=false#%C2%A7why-believe-prediction-markets-are-accurate
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction