Sam Iglesias
@sam
Can anybody explain why polymarket and predictit sustain such different prices? Finding these differences wildly implausible.
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Greg
@greg
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1826480117901631935
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Zach
@zachterrell
because prediction markets aren’t actually accurate historically speaking
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Gökhan Turhan
@gokhan.eth
it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting. there are even funnier queries here https://metaforecast.org/?query=US+President+Election
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Chamuel
@chamuel
Do we know how much money is bet on PredictIt? It might simply be illiquid and therefore imprecise
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anewname
@anewname
i think predict it is closer to being right given current polls—polymarket already correcting again. could be a users thing—copium and preexisting biases, rather than genuine analysis of the extant data
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Saff
@saff
British comment on the election 😂
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Danil
@chizaru
I think the two sites belong to different political parties
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Dindin
@m5slyva
different crowds
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Sonia Sandidge
@lunarwarrior
trump
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Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
people on Predict haven’t moved through the matrix yet/they all work in tech
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