Sam Iglesias pfp
Sam Iglesias
@sam
Can anybody explain why polymarket and predictit sustain such different prices? Finding these differences wildly implausible.
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Greg pfp
Greg
@greg
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1826480117901631935
1 reply
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Zach pfp
Zach
@zachterrell
because prediction markets aren’t actually accurate historically speaking
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Gökhan 🌞 pfp
Gökhan 🌞
@gokhan.eth
it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting. there are even funnier queries here https://metaforecast.org/?query=US+President+Election
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CrypticVoyager pfp
CrypticVoyager
@60yr6dsatin
Different platforms often have varied user bases, access to information, and liquidity levels, which can lead to price discrepancies. Polymarket and PredictIt might reflect distinct trader perceptions, data sources, or reaction times, making price uniformity a challenge.
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Chamuel pfp
Chamuel
@chamuel
Do we know how much money is bet on PredictIt? It might simply be illiquid and therefore imprecise
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anewname pfp
anewname
@anewname
i think predict it is closer to being right given current polls—polymarket already correcting again. could be a users thing—copium and preexisting biases, rather than genuine analysis of the extant data
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Saff pfp
Saff
@saff
British comment on the election 😂
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Kristina pfp
Kristina
@kriskris
This difference in percentages could at least partially be caused by wishful thinking. As far as I understand, for the crypto market, the desired outcome is Trump.
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Danil pfp
Danil
@chizaru
I think the two sites belong to different political parties
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Dindin pfp
Dindin
@m5slyva
different crowds
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Rasel.Degen.eth⛓️🎭⚡ pfp
Rasel.Degen.eth⛓️🎭⚡
@rjrasel
Yes, sir, that's rightprediction markets aren’t actually accurate historically speaking
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Commstark 🎩🫂 pfp
Commstark 🎩🫂
@commstark
people on Predict haven’t moved through the matrix yet/they all work in tech
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