Can anybody explain why polymarket and predictit sustain such different prices? Finding these differences wildly implausible.

https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1826480117901631935

Design and software at Apple. Also into AI, philosophy of mind, ethics.

I like baking /goodbread and building apps on web3 protocols. DevRel @ ENS Labs. gregskril.com

Still tho, can’t imagine the hassle isn’t worth it for at least one person.

but they should be the same price. it’s a glaring arbitrage

because prediction markets aren’t actually accurate historically speaking

it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting.

there are even funnier queries here

it's almost impossible to arb these across siloed markets across different geographies and also polymarket and others reflect the different geographical "wisdom of crowds" because of geolimiting.

there are even funnier queries here https://metaforecast.org/?query=US+President+Election

i think predict it is closer to being right given current polls—polymarket already correcting again. could be a users thing—copium and preexisting biases, rather than genuine analysis of the extant data

This difference in percentages could at least partially be caused by wishful thinking. As far as I understand, for the crypto market, the desired outcome is Trump.

people on Predict haven’t moved through the matrix yet/they all work in tech