"Negative changes in the Fed Funds Rate - US venture backed software exit activity increases by between 10% and 65%" Another banger by Tunguz. The correlation between rate cuts and VC exits is real and non-linear given rate cuts' convexity.

"Negative changes in the Fed Funds Rate - US venture backed software exit activity increases by between 10% and 65%" Another banger by Tunguz. The correlation between rate cuts and VC exits is real and non-linear given rate cuts' convexity. https://tomtunguz.com/rates-and-exits/

a correlation of 0.13 for a dataset of 10 points means it's "real"? 🤔

coder / founder / investor Founding partner @FirstStarVC 

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He does point out the limits of the data set but, yes, you have a point. Tunguz also mentions a great nuance that is not captured: the impact on valuation multiples. One thing is to have a path to liquidity and another is whether it's a venture outcome