brypto

Geopolitics

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Loves history, languages, technology, and philosophy. I’m also on X at Mazmhussain.twitter

Our beloved betting markets did not do great on this one either:

I forget who casted it, but someone here made the great point that political markets don’t actually “predict” outcomes very well

They mostly just track other people’s sentiment until the end and then whiplash to converge with the outcome (mostly just arbitrage at that point)

That’s probably why liquidity is so poor

I feel like prediction markets are where online poker was in 2010ish, overly saturated by amateurs leaving room for skilled players to enter the game and reap the rewards. Once the skilled players make up the major liquidity hopefully they will be more accurate. I guess we'll see how it plays out though