Corbin Page
@corbin.eth
Current thinking: T/Bessent are frontloading the pain and uncertainty to get: 1) new trade deals 2) lower rates 3) better housing market 4) jobs back onshore / main st wins. This hits crypto/risk assets the most given an uncertain future. No amount of SBR/Tesla buying can make up for macro. I think we'll be here for a while as we're not near max pain for the wider economy. Feels like a "take the summer off" for traders potentially but low conviction since T is intentionally super hard to read with low buffers around him in T2.0. My guess is '25 is choppy & mostly pain and then we rip in '26 into midterms when Treasuries will be lower and hopefully T gets some trade deal wins. For crypto, the 4 year cycle is over and this is the supercycle, you're just not happy about it. BTC starts trading more and more uncorrelated to ETH/SOL/alts and those eventually uncorrelate from long tail tokens. More 👇
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Corbin Page
@corbin.eth
There will be many memecoin/AI coin-like bubbles since crypto is really good at creating new speculative assets but no rising tide. For Builders, it's a great time to build something with fundamental value (sustainable rev) and be on the lookout for the next NFTs/pump.fun early and ride that train if you can. My bet rn is that it is directly tokenized Attention...like Kaito / or a better Fantasy.top or something AI related. The new meta is to raise a Seed from some good partner VCs to build and then possibly a Series A into token launch. The '10s startup journey path is over. 🪦
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Dirk Siebels
@disic
Makes sense, although that is based on the assumption that front loading of pain is based on a longer-term plan. That’s a bit harder to see at the moment. Lots of media noise of course but also very little consistent messaging from the Trump administration.
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Cooki
@cooki
agree with this 🤝
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