Current thinking: T/Bessent are frontloading the pain and uncertainty to get: 1) new trade deals 2) lower rates 3) better housing market 4) jobs back onshore / main st wins.

This hits crypto/risk assets the most given an uncertain future. No amount of SBR/Tesla buying can make up for macro. I think we'll be here for a while as we're not near max pain for the wider economy. Feels like a "take the summer off" for traders potentially but low conviction since T  is intentionally super hard to read with low buffers around him in T2.0.

My guess is '25 is choppy & mostly pain and then we rip in '26 into midterms when Treasuries will be lower and hopefully T gets some trade deal wins.

For crypto, the 4 year cycle is over and this is the supercycle, you're just not happy about it. BTC starts trading more and more uncorrelated to ETH/SOL/alts and those eventually uncorrelate from long tail tokens. More 👇

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