politics

this is my best guess for what happens election day. North Carolina is the key state. the governor's race is an absolute disaster there for the GOP and is dragging down independent voters for them.

Looks like Republicans are performing ahead of expectations on early voting.

Looks like Republicans are performing ahead of expectations on early voting.

https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1848701329247551897

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

what’s the sex breakdown in Republican early voting?

they are still overweighted and in line with the midterms. North Carolina has a history of independent voters voting blue (even when it was gerrymandered dem).

also Trump is doing a 180 after realizing Election Day is a must win

they are still overweighted and in line with the midterms. North Carolina has a history of independent voters voting blue (even when it was gerrymandered dem).

also Trump is doing a 180 after realizing Election Day is a must win

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/21/trump-voting-north-carolina-helene/

So the theory is a big Election Day surge? 

What changed from last 3 elections where Democrats are over-weighted to early voting?