politics

People are quick to dismiss Polymarket odds but they're missing two things:

1. The shift is real according to Real Clear Politics swing state polls. Harris is on a downward trend since she adopted conservative talking points.

2. While forecast shows a Trump win within the margin of error, it's normal for expectation to be exaggerated in prediction markets. Similar in other betting sites.

I told you.

Most recent Real Clear Politics polling average. Not Polymarket, not other prediction markets either.

Liberals can ignore data at their own risk, but the more Harris leans right, the worse she does. This is exactly what happened to H. Clinton.

https://chainleft.art

Dad, data scientist, blockchain native artist.

Power consolidation=evil.

It’s not just leaning right, but leaning right in all the worst ways. Voting for her feels like voting for George Bush in some ways. Being a real liberal (little “L”) would have been great but I think it’s too late now.

Decentralization maximalist. Web3 Product Manager.

Yeah :/ You'd think Dems would've learned from what happened to HRC