Time to revisit a few predictions I gave a year ago.

https://warpcast.com/cassie/0xad5f29

The dot com bubble fully leveled out by the end of 2002.

BDFL of Quilibrium, Eng @ Farcaster, ex-Coinbase, always opinionated, never hydrated

/quilibrium

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that 2025 crypto is 2020 dot com?

I like pleasure spiked with blockchain and music is my aeroplane. It's my aeroplane. @pizzadao underboss & /politics contributor. Featured in "Number Go Up" 📖

We're already past that point. I don't map the parallel to raw dollars, but rather the raw events. Trying to predict market prices based on past patterns is basically astrology, but trying to predict market _outcomes_... that's where the symmetry lies

I get what you're saying, my argument is that crash out actually began earlier than that – a lot of crypto startups died in 2024 despite the individual mania in the markets, and that was the same phenomenon in 2001, albeit not at the same scale or volume. 2002 was the final set of major capitulations, and i expect some very surprising entries in the list of companies who fold, sell out to PE, or get acquired as an attempt to save themselves.

I'm not trying to say anything about actual dollar figures. Obviously dot com didn't work in cycles like crypto does. I'm just saying that 2000 was the dot com crash and the survivors were apparent 1-2 years later. They ended up becoming some of the biggest companies in the world. After this year's crypto market crash we will see 90%+ of projects fail and the ones that do make it through could essentially become large, long term players.