The NYT has published a story claiming the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was carried out by a bomb planted in his room. While I know both reporters involved in this I find this story hard to believe and also at odds with my own information.

For this story to be true, Israel would have to know months in advance that former President Raisi would die in a helicopter crash, there’d be a new election and when, that Haniyeh would attend the inauguration, and also exactly where he’d stay that night and when. It requires a literally incredible set of fortunate coincidences to pull off. No material evidence is produced for this, just anonymous sources.

The far simpler explanation is that he or his bodyguards were tracked by their cellphones which they failed to swap or remove the batteries and hit with a missile. But this explanation gives casus belli for retaliation since it implies violate of sovereignty.

The NYT has published a story claiming the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was carried out by a bomb planted in his room. While I know both reporters involved in this I find this story hard to believe and also at odds with my own information.

For this story to be true, Israel would have to know months in advance that former President Raisi would die in a helicopter crash, there’d be a new election and when, that Haniyeh would attend the inauguration, and also exactly where he’d stay that night and when. It requires a literally incredible set of fortunate coincidences to pull off. No material evidence is produced for this, just anonymous sources.

The far simpler explanation is that he or his bodyguards were tracked by their cellphones which they failed to swap or remove the batteries and hit with a missile. But this explanation gives casus belli for retaliation since it implies violate of sovereignty.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html

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If this is a particularly important room in a secure complex (like for dignitaries), I could see a blind plant in the hopes of generating a target of opportunity in the future - but a targeted op with that many pieces I agree feels on the wrong side of believable