The June 18th crash isn't about macro trends or the Fed; it's the lack of confidence within the market. Participants are either holders or traders. Holders are mostly holding or cashing out, with few buying at this level. The BTC ETF narrative has ended for now, and there's no new big buying interest. Meanwhile, the valuation of altcoins remains chaotic.

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The market is like a spinning top driven by a whip, with the ETF being that whip. As the force weakens, the top will eventually fall due to inertia. Traders accelerate this process, but once the first exits occur and resistance is noticed, the collapse can happen quickly. Rebound timing depends on two factors: a significant drop before the ETH ETF approval, which would clear out leveraged longs, and the stabilization of altcoin valuations. This requires major holders to accept current valuations and project teams to accumulate and restore confidence, signaling the bottom.