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byron3
@byron3
The June 18th crash isn't about macro trends or the Fed; it's the lack of confidence within the market. Participants are either holders or traders. Holders are mostly holding or cashing out, with few buying at this level. The BTC ETF narrative has ended for now, and there's no new big buying interest. Meanwhile, the valuation of altcoins remains chaotic.
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byron3
@byron3
In my view, altcoins are sentiment indicators, with new coins being the most prominent. Regardless of valuation, exchange and market maker mechanisms usually keep prices stable, but this model is fragile and fails when the market bleeds. Current project teams don't know how to handle these situations without strong market maker support. Poor performance by project teams and market makers can spread, so value those who maintain their efforts.
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byron3
@byron3
The market is like a spinning top driven by a whip, with the ETF being that whip. As the force weakens, the top will eventually fall due to inertia. Traders accelerate this process, but once the first exits occur and resistance is noticed, the collapse can happen quickly. Rebound timing depends on two factors: a significant drop before the ETH ETF approval, which would clear out leveraged longs, and the stabilization of altcoin valuations. This requires major holders to accept current valuations and project teams to accumulate and restore confidence, signaling the bottom.
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