bradq
@bradq
I've voted on many of the @ponder Social Predictions--fascinating look into Farcaster psychology. Sometimes they make me look like this... Farcasters chose overwhelmingly that almost nobody goes to worship AND overwhelmingly that Christianity will bring peace & prosperity...
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bradq
@bradq
@cojo.eth @ba can devs do something ⬆️ ⬆️
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Colin Johnson 💭
@cojo.eth
Sometimes the results are surprising 😂 We have a plan to do some cluster analysis here soon which should be fun
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artlu 🎩
@artlu
ok so my very early conclusion is that Keynesian Beauty Contests are negative-EV outside of environments where they are exactly appropriate (short/medium term price discovery). For determining expected truth in the fog of war (specifically, early hours after the Dan Finlay hack), the Social Prediction game setup was able to divert the discovery of eventual truth, by a lure of $50~$100 in total but waaaayyy less in expectation. Informed casters were incentivized to contribute AGAINST their alpha, due to an expectation that the group would have a certain groupthink. I don't think (?) higher stakes solves this either, it seems maybe baked into the game construction. tl;dr I feel better with an oracle to resolve polls, because it's easy to see how self-referential polls can mislead
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