"If I'm president the U.S. will buy bitcoin"

There's a fair chance Trump makes a campaign promise at the Bitcoin conference this Saturday to buy bitcoin to back the dollar.

Honestly, I'd give the odds higher than 50% - why show up if you're not going to do a Trumpian-style announcement?

Some rough odds:

Trump has a 62% chance of winning according to Polymarket.

And say there's a 75% chance of Trump following through with this commitment upon winning.

50% x 62% x 75% = 23%

That means  a 23% chance that bitcoin is on the U.S. Fed balance sheet by the end of 2025. 

Twenty-FREAKING-three percent!

So we have silly bullish odds the most powerful economic entity in world history may be buying crypto in the next 24 months and the market is still letting you buy BTC under $65k and ETH under $3,200.

Do what you will.