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Henry Hirshland
@hirsh
Interesting to see the discrepancy between 538 polling and @polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1721263299689 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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Beninem
@beninem
TBH I think Polymarket has had a LOT of mainly 1 type of gambling niche taking it over in recent weeks (the Elon-loving, Trump-loving, Crypto-bruh, influencer-loving type). They've been piling into political trades with reckless abandon and thinking that the market is practically resolved when in fact most of them still have lots of time left and so of course things swing back the other way and these folks panic sell for losses. Overall my way of saying you can't trust Polymarket 50-75% of the time IMO. The groupthink + gambling is causing lots of bad %'s which reflect only a small niche.
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Hbj🎩🐹🧾
@hbj
300 $DEGEN. Word.
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