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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
U.S. officials tell Axios that they expect an Iranian attack on Israel as early as this Monday. The attack will also likely involve proxy groups like Hezbollah and others based in Iraq and Yemen. The question now will be whether Iran tries to thread a needle of attacking below a threshold that triggers total war or whether they simply aim to inflict maximum damage. As I’ve said before this time they are not engaging in the performative signaling that took place in April where they allowed many of their missiles to be intercepted. If they aim to inflict damage they will likely target a large number of ballistic missiles at a particular target in Israel to overwhelm the Iron Dome defense batteries. Some Israeli analysts I follow have speculated the Ministry of Defense building in Tel Aviv could be hit. As a general statement I hope for the safety of civilians on all sides and avoidance of uncontrolled escalation. https://www.axios.com/2024/08/04/israel-iran-top-us-general-middle-east-preparation-attack
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Benjamin Basche
@basche42
I’m of two minds On the one hand nothing ever happens, and Iran is a rational actor who has consistently demonstrated that it wants to de-escalate On the other hand, the only way the current Israeli regime will stop what it’s doing is if it gets what it wants - self immolating in a disastrous regional war
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Benjamin Basche
@basche42
My guess is that it will be an extremely pro active response by Iran but it will be aimed entirely at military targets. That’s the baby split
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