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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I don’t understand why anyone would pit Polymarket’s U.S. election market against the likes of Nate Silver, or compare it with any election survey really. An election survey only asks “who do you want to see win the election” (aka who do you intend to vote for). It’s a question about one’s own personal preference. Polymarket asks “who do you expect will win the election”. It’s a question about guessing the collective preference. Add in the confounding practice of bet hedging, and Polymarket is not only a terrible survey instrument for measuring personal intentions, but arguably a questionable predictor of electoral outcomes, too. The only upside to this noise is that it brings a great crypto use case (prediction markets) into the spotlight, and by extension, drives onboarding
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Benido
@benido
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1853818243003125934 Just saw this. If this is true... wow.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
True indeed, it was interesting to follow from the start. People correctly speculated that he was French due to his spelling and punctuation. It illustrates my point though — any non-American out there can participate in prediction markets, and they do. I even thought of buying Kamala just as a long-shot hedge against the prevailing sentiment (thankfully I didn’t pull the trigger!). Too much noise in the prediction markets to replace independent polls with sound methodology.
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Benido
@benido
But in this (special) case his nationality doesn't really play a role. He just analyzed the (apparently public) data from pollsters, added a little custom poll --> data, which was a tiny investment compared to the bet itself and built the thesis that polls are skewed. What's imo really interesting is that he even predicted DJT to win the popular vote, which was seen as free money for Harris betters. Do we necessarily need a prediction market for the analysis he did? No we don't! But it's a great way to "put your money where your mouth is" and adds another dimension to summarize (and evaluate) polls by disagreeing with them.
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