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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
“Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has continued into a second day, prompting Vladimir Putin to convene a meeting with his top defence and law enforcement officials. A report from one Russia military blogger suggested Ukrainian forces had advanced northwards, possibly as far as nine miles (15km) from the border, along a highway north of the border village of Sverdlikovo and near a major natural gas transmission hub, but this could not be verified. Official and unofficial Russian sources reported that a force of several hundred soldiers had crossed a lightly defended part of the border on Tuesday morning, in what appears to be one of the largest incursions into Russia since the war began in February 2022.” Wild twist that Ukraine has turned the tables on the Russian invasion by invading Russian territory and apparently holding it effectively. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/07/ukraine-incursion-into-russia-kursk-region-continues-into-second-day
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Very perplexed by this apparent attempt at a tie breaker. Perhaps the most obvious angle is that it solidifies Ukraine’s position in upcoming negotiations, i.e., Ukraine retreats in return for an equivalent Russian retreat. But that assumes that Ukraine can hold onto this salient until negotiations happen, which is far from obvious. The second order effect is to weaken Putin by showing to Russians that he’s incapable of defending the Motherland’s own borders, and not the strongman he portrays himself to be. Every humiliation presumably brings him closer to being ousted. But it’s also an unprecedented escalation in this conflict and may force Putin’s hand into escalating further (e.g., using a tactical nuke?). In which case a third-order consequence might be to force a Western response, which in turn would benefit Ukraine.
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Harpocryptes
@harpocryptes
Another possibility is just forcing Russia to assign more resources to secure their entire border to avoid such embarrassment, which would take away from forces in occupied Ukraine. If that's the objective, Ukraine might just focus on some symbolic and military targets, not necessarily trying to hold that territory long term.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
That’s a very good point. Like a high-priority diversion that relieves some pressure back home
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