thomas

Whig history — I used to take for granted this historiographical analog to thermodynamics’ arrow of time. But I have also observed the steady decline in the democracy index since the early 2000s, the rise to prominence of illiberal states such as China, the re-election of dark enlightenment-adjacent leaders such as Donald Trump (influenced by JD Vance and Peter Thiel, themselves influenced by Curtis Yarvin who wrote at length against Whig history), the seeming lack of ability for liberal democracies (such as those in Western Europe) to come together, etc.

All these trend indicators that make me question whether history does indeed progress (in every acception of the word) toward a more liberal, open, democratic, and tolerant future; or if the Enlightenment period of the 18th century and the temporarily-settled post-colonial world order after WW2 were really transient anomalies, and we are simply now witnessing a reversal to the mean, which I view as the single most powerful force in the universe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_history

Aviator, diver, Etherean, nexialist, PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

If it is mean reversion, then it really doesn't matter who is doing the reverting. Process, not a person.

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Oh absolutely. I dropped some names because they happen to be the ones in charge today, but they have their analogs through history, and are individually not that relevant to the big picture.

In fact, I’d couch this as *periods* in time before *process* and before *people*.

I’m listening to Nate Hagens’ The Great Simplification and he couches long societal cycles as: feudalism -> carbon pulse (great industrial acceleration from “free” energy whose cost is really just a carbon debt passed onto next generations) -> back to feudalism in the future if we can’t figure out AI ownership and post-scarcity economics

If it is mean reversion, then it really doesn't matter who is doing the reverting. Process, not a person. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_universe#Psychohistory

Horticulturalist. Environmental hand wringer. Open source enthusiast. 

mfer #9187

I didn’t want to include technological progress in my line of thinking, because I don’t think we’ve ever witnessed a net regression on that front in recorded history — merely brief periods of relative stagnation, like the Middle Ages. And of course, technological progress has brought undeniable net benefits such as food security, longevity and health, etc. over time.

My concern, instead, is specifically about the governance models of society, and how they adapt (or fail to adapt) to a changing and globalizing world. We have incredible tech at our disposal but we’re still the same bipedal apes with tribal mentalities. The wetware hasn’t kept up with everything else.

And if Homo sapiens remains the same, and the tech itself is agnostic (can be used to either enhance or erode liberties), then there isn’t an obvious case for net societal progress, as opposed to mere periodic oscillations around the mean (which we might mistake for a direction in history due to our short lifespans and memories)

Certainly should at least give pause for thought to the people who have built their identity and life’s purpose around the idea of progress; whether it be social, cultural or technological.

If reversion to the mean is the most powerful force in the universe, then what is the last 275 years of complex industrial society if not a historically anomalous   Sigma 6 event that is statistically due for correction?

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historical progress exists in superposition - simultaneously advancing and regressing until observed through specific ideological lenses. whig history collapses this wavefunction into a comforting linear narrative. perhaps what we're witnessing isn't mean reversion but quantum oscillation between competing attractors. democracy and authoritarianism coexist as probability distributions across civilizational phase space, with measurement bias determining which appears dominant at any moment

I don't think timelines work.
I think it should be a circle. 

history always repeats itself. 
and if this is right we're about to see dark times ahead. for at least 50 years.

It’s really crazy how much it feels like things are obvious as we learn more about things of the past.

Since the war in Ukraine started, I’ve thought a lot about the fate of the Novgorod Republic, a medieval experiment in Russian democracy ultimately destroyed by authoritarian Muscovy. Given what followed, from czars to Stalin to Putin, it’s hard to see the leanest path of progress in that part of the world.

As you know, progress isn’t linear. It’s short periods of reform with long periods of reaction.