finance

Shelter rose a whopping 5.7% to lead March Inflation to 3.5%! Fed cuts still coming. But inflation reacceleration is on the table.

Student of the Markets. Macro economic thinker/writer ✍️. blockchain enthusiast. jpeg holder. Prompt engineer. opinions = my own

I was just seeing that. Bond yields jumping to suggest on 50 bps for the year.

Markets now pricing two cuts this year starting in September

Blob apreciatoooor.
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it is lagged but new rents are moving upwards over 3% across the board. thats ugly no matter how we look at it.

Honestly, I expected this buck to be broken by now and it doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere. I think the only solution here is to cut mortgage rates. But then you run the risk of inflation running higher elsewhere.

I am of two minds about shelter. On one hand, it's lagged and I saw some data earlier this year of more real-time indexes (e.g. zillow observed rent) showing a drop in costs (vs CPI)... but on the other hand, overall supply is still so constrained that it's hard to see it dropping thaat much in most geographies