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Maretus
@maretus
Here’s how I think things are going to go over the next year or so. Uncertainty brought on by the new tariff policy is going to plunge the U.S. into a recession or put us on the path to one. Markets will bleed the whole time this is happening. Later this year, economic data will push the FED to reduce interest rates, end QT, and maybe start QE. This would give risk assets a huge pump. For awhile. However, I think inflation will remain high and ultimately the FED will have acted too hastily, forcing them to reverse course in 2026. At which point, I expect a prolonged recession or worse. So, in my very retarded opinion - there will be a good opportunity to make money later in the year when the fed pivots. But make your money quick and take profits cause it won’t last for long.
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antaur
@antaur.eth
agree with most except the 2026 recession: if anything Trump will delay it bc of mid-term elections in US. Also: Cathy Woods and others been saying for years the biggest problem will be deflation, not inflation. AI will make 99% of all digital goods and IRL services with large IT component 99% cheaper - prolly over only the course of 10 years Service economies like Ireland will face existential problems - unless they get in front of that wave and co-shape it
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Maretus
@maretus
This only happens if AI is open source and able to be used by the majority of people. If it’s kept in the hands of a few companies, they will have no incentive to offer it to us at a competitive enough rate to worry about deflation. We can’t add a new 30% tax on basically everything without causing some inflation. Prices on everything are going to go up and that may continue as the trade war escalates. Couple that with a bunch of potential QE and low rates and you have the same ingredients that led to high inflation we still currently have
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antaur
@antaur.eth
imo they will race to the bottom faster then in any other industry before. why would AI be different? I recommend studying Daniel Schmachtenberger and Moloch to understand multi-polar traps.
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Maretus
@maretus
There are a few tech industries, such as digital advertising where it has only got more and more expensive over time. Maybe AI is the same. So far it has been. Cost for chatgpt subscription is up like 400%. But I do think there is a lot of good open source AI happening and if it continues; that should allow for it to be democratized.
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