If you believe Polymarket is wrong, there’s an opportunity to ~3x your money in just 13 days. 

Annualized IRR of 4,969%

Options/sports bets typically aren’t this mis priced <30 days to expiry 

I think we are seeing a similar case to 2016 where the people are refusing to accept prediction markets

Any friend I’ve spoken to about poly market has just said “well obviously it’s some trumper gaming the results” which I could believe for 1-2% but not this wide of a margin

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In comparison the volume of HBOs satoshi pick is roughly 2% than that of the 2024 election winner.

So it’s a combination of interest, plus available data on both subjects - no one knows who satoshi is, maybe no one wanted action on that knowing someone at HBO had better info or no one close cared, I think this is possible since only recently companies are starting to show interest in and using crypto internally 

+ there is a metric fuck ton of data on voters, and how the candidates are doing.

Why do you think that HBO Satoshi polymarket thing ended up so ridiculously far off?