androidsixteen on Warpcast

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@androidsixteen.eth

Conventional Silicon Valley wisdom biases towards being “early” to markets rather than being “late”, but this isn’t an absolute — it’s a trade-off just like everything else in life If your product is addressing a market need that isn’t fully there yet (ie. you’re “early”), then the risk taken is around surviving long enough for the market to mature. You can allay this by being lean, achieving ramen profitability, or raising a fat war chest to ride it out Conversely, if the market is already here (ie. you’re “late”), then you’ll face more competition from other products. You’ll have to battle for customers, and the risk becomes more about sales and speed of execution Personally, I prefer the former. The stress of a competitive category is exhausting, and I’d rather build a product for a market that shows glimpses of maturity. That way, when the market arrives in full, you will have had time to build a great product experience and can just scoop up customers

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Dan Romero pfp

> Conventional Silicon Valley wisdom biases towards being “early” to markets rather than being “late”, but this isn’t an absolute — it’s a trade-off just like everything else in life I don't think that's true. Apple, Google, Facebook were all the last to enter a market that ended up being massive.

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@androidsixteen.eth

For sure, but don’t you think that’s a result of survivorship bias though? The valley still funded NeXT, AltaVista and Friendster before the incumbents were cemented And in the more recent wave, AirBnB, Uber, et al were the first-movers (though verdict is still out on their longevity)

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Dan Romero pfp

Yeah, usually the early winner — Yahoo, eBay, AOL — is too early. Airbnb was not a first mover. Vrbo, etc. Taxi Magic and Cabulous raised plenty of funding years before Uber or Lyft. Instacart worked 15 years after WebVan. I’d argue it’s all about the market being ready, ie pmarca’s the only thing that matters.

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@androidsixteen.eth

Good counterpoints re: Vrbo and others (Zimride :)). And agree re: the market’s importance I guess my thinking was, if the valley truly believed in the “best mover” thesis, why do they keep funding early winners that eventually die? It’s not just dumb money either, plenty of smart money in Yahoo, eBay, etc.

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