My bet is it will experience intense seasonality, especially if it gets truly deep liquidity and/or another predictive win in the future.

Kalshi and others gonna feast regardless tho.

what do you think is the right adjacency for them to target (after politics?)

Sports are a natural target, other options are more localized events with clear binary outcomes, Hurricane to hit Florida in X days, Harvest of Corn ded or gud, etc

Climate disaster markets

Dystopian innit

Been living in the world of insurance for a long time, this is just offering exposure more directly tbh.