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Anders Elowsson
@anderselowsson
I wish to highlight is how to present yield distributions for non-pooled stakers. Some webpages and researchers rely on things like the median across all validators over some minuscule time period, averaging these medians over time. This fails to capture the probabilistic outcome facing the solo staker. Half of the validators will never propose a block during the same day, yet half will still propose within a few months. Order statistics are instead relevant on a per-validator basis over longer time. To check if it is raining, do not extend your hand and measure the median number of fingers impacted by raindrops every millisecond. The result will always be zero; yet it might still rain. The tiny vertical black line segment is the solo stakers that do not have a block proposal or sync-committee duty over a year, presented as the “all-time median” on sites such as Rated. The real median outcome facing solo stakers after one year is indicated by a black arrow, fairly close already to the expected yield.
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Anders Elowsson
@anderselowsson
The modeling methodology was presented in the post on properties of issuance level: https://ethresear.ch/t/properties-of-issuance-level-consensus-incentives-and-variability-across-potential-reward-curves/18448 The topic is currently debated in the context of "maximum viable security" (MVS), a counter proposal to "minimum viable issuance" (MVI) on Ethresearch. Here is a link to the MVS post: https://ethresear.ch/t/maximum-viable-security-a-new-framing-for-ethereum-issuance/19992 And a link to my latest answer (where I outline the specific settings used to produce the figure in my previous cast): https://ethresear.ch/t/maximum-viable-security-a-new-framing-for-ethereum-issuance/19992/5
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