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Ferran š
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcasterās social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, thereās a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isnāt appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People donāt want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. Itās a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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Ferran š
@ferran
2/2 By the end of the year, this will likely force a major pivot in Farcaster go-to-market strategy toward something far more sexy than whatās been shown so far (which, tbh, has been one of the least exciting GtMs Iāve seen in a long time for a project with this much potential). Hopefully, that pivot will finally position it as a protocol that feels useful to a broader audience, and weāll start to see more mainstream growth and regular developers and communities will find utility in Farcaster. This is just a positive criticism, I want FC success, and I'm looking forward to proving myself wrong!
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Alok Vasudev
@alok
Thanks for writing it up. I can't speak to whether it'll succeed or fail but I think it's a "must try" as an experiment. Part of the entire premise here is whether a social network (architected in this manner) can be infrastructure leveraged by other products. Maybe a wallet is the wrong type of product to integrate a social feed? But wallets do have a DAU challenge and this is certainly a better idea than a wallet trying to build its own proprietary content feed.
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Alok Vasudev
@alok
not to mention - i think we need to rebuild the dev courage to build 3rd party social networking clients. coinbase can be an inspiration for others to try.
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