politics

cryptoplaza

A misconception I've fallen into with this type of betting is that we tend to think the result shown represents the vote percentage. That's not the case. Even if a candidate won with 55% of the votes, if the market perceived this outcome with a 99% probability, the bet's outcome would be close to 1, as the event of winning would be extremely likely and therefore worth around 1 in value for that bet. @polymarket

People will soon start analyzing the gap between Polymarket, polls, and the final results. 

As a crypto app going mainstream, at least Polymarket provides a new, real-time perspective on elections, whether as “anchor sentiment and thus views” or a pro-crypto bias.

The next few days will be interesting.

Polymarket betting stats of Farcaster users -
shares owned - 
Total Pro-trump/anti-harris shares - 3.2 million(51.9%)
Total Pro-harris/anti-trump shares - 2.98 million(48.1%)

Subscribe to my hypersub  for more such analyses!
https://www.hypersub.xyz/s/yesyes-analytics-qr0v8onrvev4/1

It seems Farcaster users' predictions on Polymarket are less swayed by outsized bets, avoiding probabilities that deviate significantly from the polls.

crypto-anarchist · onchain social explorer, curator, advisor · spread FC gospel in /chinese community · host /luo · write 0xluo.xyz

It seems Farcaster users' predictions on Polymarket are less swayed by outsized bets, avoiding probabilities that deviate significantly from the polls.

https://warpcast.com/yesyes/0xd1df6834