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0xLuo
@0xluo.eth
Despite all the praise @polymarket has received, it has now proven its edge over polling experts. Its key advantage is rapid response and real-time updates. but many people (myself as a non-American included) were misled by mainstream media reports into thinking its results had a pro-crypto bias. However, Polymarket’s mechanics may be why it gets predictions right: 1. It aggregates data from diverse participants, avoiding bias and external influence. 2. It captures insights missed by polls, like the “shy Trump voter” effect. 3. It adjusts predictions based on market data, unaffected by media politics. as a crypto app, I think there's still potential for improvement. It's built on Polygon, a chain with limited user popularity and liquidity now, it requires bridging assets to Polygon, converting them to USDC, and transferring them to a Polymarket wallet. These steps are cumbersome. If it were restructured as a dApp on Chain Abstract, removing its reliance on Polygon, it could gain wider adoption.
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alex
@proxystudio.eth
damn that was easy polling and a prediction market just seem like entirely different things, combined they're extremely interesting. don't totally understand where people are getting the idea that polling diverged from polymarket though?
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0xLuo
@0xluo.eth
As seen on the 538 polling site, Trump doesn't have the same overwhelming advantage as he does on Polymarket. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
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alex
@proxystudio.eth
which is good, because odds of win/loss != polling almost all of the polling I was seeing getting passed around twitter (admittedly, just my feed) had trump strength and harris weakness, thats been a pretty mainstream narrative for a bit. it was a dominate victory, but wasn't outside margins of error I want less uncertain polls that require lots of analysis and context and confident prediction markets, that feels like the most accurate way to capture the reality of human behavior either way, hope that polymarket keeps getting this vol, we'll learn way more over time
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