Davide
@0xdavide
🚨Have you ever wondered how important token "unlocks" are? In general you should consider that VC invest in a project in the early stages (funding) and will get tokens at a discount (when it is created). The purchase price is so low that it is very likely that when they will get liquid tokens (after a vesting period) they will have nice multipliers to sell on the market (VC with the unlock of $Tia in October 2024 were doing between 100x and 150x, despite $Tia not being in ATH for a long time). Why does nothing happen on the unlock day? Simply unlock is priced in the previous months with market sales or short (perps/futures). Will VC, having obtained tokens from vesting, sell it? It depends. They are certainly not interested in long term (years) to hold any altcoin they invest in. Some VC may also decide to short token (with a small %) in their vesting months/years.
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Davide
@0xdavide
📉How do unlocks affect the price? It depends on how big they are, if there is a huge issuance the price drops a lot in the months before the unlock because whales and others who have invested fear it. A simple example is that of $Tia. Keep in mind that the MarketCap is given by the product of the circulating (supply) and the price. If the circulating increases, with the same buy/sell, the price drops over time. Observe in the graph below, how unlock has destroyed the price: 1️⃣$Tia "pre unlock" with MCap of 3.2B (Feb 2024) is worth $19.83. 2️⃣$Tia "post unlock" goes to ATH of MCap with 3.7B (Dec 2024), however the price is "only" $8.85. In December 2024, if we "eliminate" unlocks of October 30, 2024, with the same buy/sell, what would have been the price with 3.7B of MCap? About $23.
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Davide
@0xdavide
VC (in this case and at least until December 2024) have sold less than you think but the supply issuance (from vesting) has completely sunk the price. This is one of the reasons why you should not hold altcoins over the years: inflation and unlocks literally destroy the price (the market needs more and more capital, to keep the price similar to previous years for that token that has had unlocks). Check your unlocks here: https://tokenomist.ai/
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Weblr3 🐲
@crazywoah
A good read for all
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