Davide

@0xdavide

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📈Very often I hear/read the phrase "I invest in this token because it is a good project". This reasoning is wrong: "Good project" ≠ "Good investment". When you invest in a token you should ask yourself what the token is for, if it has demand and unlocks. There are good projects with: 1) Bad tokens to invest in 2) Tokens not integrated into the ecosystem 🔹Think about PancakeSwap or Curve. Surely they are 2 great projects but the $CAKE and $CRV tokens are bad investments because they have emissions and little demand. 🔹Cosmos Hub is a great functional ecosystem developed on Cross Chain and ease of building L1 but $ATOM (apart from the airdrop narrative) has never been integrated into the ecosystem. 🔹$POL has always been purely speculative. 🔹$DOT would have the use case of renting space for parachains but "no parachains use, no good price action". 🔹$ADA is a useless crypto (ridiculous TVL in DeFi and no use case).

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🔴What's happening on Solana? Influencers, platforms and meme-scams. The Milei scandal is just the latest in the crypto world and especially memecoin. 7 major crashes/rug pulls in a month: 🔹US President Donald Trump : $TRUMP 🔹First Lady Melania Trump :$MELANIA 🔹Dave Portnoy: $JAISTOOL 🔹Binance Founder CZ : $TST and $BROCCOLI 🔹African Republic President : $CAR 🔹Argentina President : $LIBRA In the previous cycle (2021) there were rugs connected to famous sports personalities, musicians, other influencers. 🔹$Trump and $Melania are old news, $Tst is a token test on the BNB Chain mentioned by them that led to several rug pulls. 🔹$Broccoli is the name of CZ's dog that led to the creation of a thousand tokens with that name inaugurating the "rug pull party".

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📈📉A metric that could be interesting to evaluate if a token is underpriced or not is the Market Cap of the token/TVL (DeFi). I would not compare L1 with L2...they are different worlds. ⭕ L1: 🔹Ethereum: 324B (Market Cap), 57.45B (TVL) ~ 6:1 🔹Solana: 90B (Market Cap), 8.8B (TVL) ~ 10:1 🔹BNB Chain: 98B (Market Cap), 5.56B (TVL) ~ 18:1 🔹Cardano: 29B (Market Cap), 380M (TVL) ~ 76:1 🔹Tron: 21B (Market Cap), 5.96B (TVL) ~ 4:1 🔹Avalanche: 10.5B (Market Cap), 1.27B (TVL) ~ 8:1 🔹Sui: 10.2B (Market Cap), 1.44B (TVL) ~ 7:1 🔹Ton: 9.5B (Market Cap), 200M (TVL) ~ 48:1 🔹Hyperliquid: 8.7B (Market Cap), 654M (TVL) ~ 13:1 🔹Aptos: 3.5B (Market Cap), 960M (TVL) ~ 4:1 🔹Polygon: 2.8B (Market Cap), 800M (TVL) ~ 4:1 🔹Cronos: 2.45B (Market Cap), 420M (TVL) ~ 6:1 🔹Algorand: 2.38B (Market Cap), 115M (TVL) ~ 21:1 🔹Sonic: 1.9B (Market Cap), 440M (TVL) ~ 4:1 🔹Injective: 1.56B (Market Cap), 42M (TVL) ~ 37:1

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🪂List of projects that have hinted at an airdrop with announcements and/or points but have not released yet (some are clowns 🤡 at the highest level, the worst: Zora, Metamask, Venom, Taho, Syncswap, Satori, MarginFi, Kinza): ▶Metamask (they have talked about their token and TGE several times but it's been 4 years) ▶Zora (chain that as soon as it releases, IF it releases, it will die) ▶MarginFi (I think it was the first protocol in history to add the plague of points on chain) ▶Venom (scammers) ▶Kiloex (they have been postponing TGE for almost 1 year) ▶Polygon zkEVM (chain dead) ▶Taho Wallet (they have been promising airdrop for 4 years) ▶Milkyway (they slipped into the narrative of liquid staking points after the huge Jito Network airdrop) ▶Linea (will they let Q1 pass too?) ▶Satori ▶Rainbow ▶KelpDAO ▶OwltoFinance (deploy on chain and checkin are very interesting but wen TGE?) ▶Rango ▶Syncswap (every 5-6 months they put FOMO citing TGE)

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🪂Which Layer1 and Layer2 are you farming? I personally am using: 1) Abstract Chain (connected to Pudgy Penguins) 2) Soneium (Sony Layer2) 3) Ink (Kraken Layer2) 4) Eclipse (Solana Layer2) 5) Berachain (L1) Abstract Chain seems the most different, given the gamification and video streaming feature. Eclipse's user experience is that of Solana with greater speed and no congestion (but there are less users). Berachain, in addition to the farming opportunity, also seems very interesting $Bera (token market cap is 1/5 of the TVL). Soneium and Ink seem very disappointing to me (very low TVL).

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📊Ondo Finance will become a liquidity hub (market maket) for tokenized government bonds. If an investor wants to sell their tokenized government bonds, they can do so directly to Blackrock and Paypal who will commit to guaranteeing to provide liquidity, instead of having to find a buyer in the open market. Through Ondo Global Markets, more than 1000 tokenized NYSE and NASDAQ securities will arrive, including bonds, ETF and stocks (Apple, Tesla, Amazon, etc). All on chain, 24/7 and through lending you can obtain returns on the assets held. It will also launch its own chain via CosmosSDK with selected validators without MEV (ok it will not be the best of decentralization), Proof Of Reserves (for each tokenized asset), borrow, lending, liquid staking, staking of tokenized assets. Imagine your NVIDIA or Amazon stocks in staking (or at least in yield!). Each product will be backed 1:1 (like stablecoin).

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🪂🖼️Many NFT projects are launching their Governance Token: 1) Pudgy Penguins 2) Azuki 3) Doodles Yesterday it was announced by Doodles, in addition to the main collection, there are Dooplicators and Genesis Boxes that will definitely take an allocation. They could probably also add comics, commemorative ones and wearables. Doodles has been an interesting collection, even if they have often received FUD for changes in plans: main collection on Ethereum Mainnet, then Doodles2 on the Flow chain, then transfer to Base/Zora for their other initiatives. Now they will launch the token on Solana. A bit confused here.

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🧩Movement Network is a modular layer2 that uses the Move programming language (MVM). The goal is to build rollups based on the Move language using the MoveSDK (software kit). Move is based on: 1) M1 (L1 Proof of Stake with $Move in stake that uses a shared sequencer, which is more decentralized than the classic L2 sequencers; this is one of the problems of canonical L2: whoever carries the transactions from the L2 to the L1 is centralized). 2) M2 (L2 rollups with Move Virtual Machine that carry finality and settlement on Ethereum but are Validiums as they use the Celestia chain as Data Availability. They use parallelization to increase TPS and scalability). M1 validators, in addition to the $Move token emissions, also obtain the fees generated by the sequencer. Trump's WLFI has purchased 2 million $Move. There would also be connections with Elon Musk's D.O.G.E. (possible integration).

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✍️ Many users naively believe that X is the best crypto social. I don't think so. DeBank is clearly superior, even if it has far fewer users. Advantages of DeBank: 1) Native crypto users (less toxic community and fewer scammers) 2) Usability (no mail login) 3) Functionality (tracking on chain, fewer scamguru, no fake-screens) 4) SocialFi (leadeboard, PrimePost, badge) 5) Earnings (if you engage on Debank you earn, on X you earn nothing) I also tried Farcaster and Lens/Hey. If I had to make a ranking: 1) DeBank 2) X 3) Farcaster 4) Hey/Lens 5) Nostr I've always appreciated Torum too, although the method of distributing rewards in $XTM could have been managed better, IMO. The big advantage of X lies in: 1) More users because it has existed for more than 15 years 2) Possibility of appearing for what you are not (this is an advantage for scammers/fakegurus!) 3) It is free (even if now without a monthly badge subscription, X is limited)

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📉 As always happens every cycle (every 4 years), most of the chains (and tokens) will disappear. TVL of some chains will go close to 0. Since 2021 chains (L1) have disappeared, next years in addition to L1, also many L2 will go practically to 0 as TVL. • Terra $24B -> $980k (-99.99%) • Defichain $1.2B -> $3.5M (-99.71%) • Harmony: $1.4B -> $1.7M (-99.9%) • Aurora: $1.3B -> $14M (-98.9%) • Moonriver: $380M -> $2.4M (-99.3%) • Juno: $30M -> $335k (-98.88%) • Evmos: $12M -> $300k (-97.5%) • Canto: $205M -> $8M (-96.1%) • MultiversX (Egld Network/Elond): $2.12B -> $91M (-96%) Polygon TVL also down 92% from $9.9B back in 2021 to $780M and the Polygon zkEVM (which was very hyped a while ago) at only $6.74M (the Polygon Foundation's scalability experiment completely failed). Don't fall in love with altcoins and chains...liquidity is mercenary, there is too much fragmentation of liquidity, speculation and many times a project is born to last a maximum of 2 years.

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🪂🎰💰I hope you are using Polymarket because I think that if they were to create their own native token, airdrop could be very interesting. The level of farming is very high because there are users who have been using it for more than 1 year and a half. I have 2 addresses: 1 older (February 2024) that I have been using since October 2024 and then a more recent one (November 2024) that I only use on the mobile device (having the main address only on desktop). On a regulatory level, Polymarket has had some problems with what it offers (we know that the betting world is highly regulated), however with Trump the rules could be less stringent. Possible airdrop could be very interesting.

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📈In my opinion BTC is waiting for Trump's announcements to "go up". It seems like an accumulation phase. However, being dependent on someone's decisions is never a good thing. Obviously always taking into account that this is short-term volatility (which would impact the asset relatively long term), have you ever thought about what would happen if Trump repudiated the BTC reserve? The big difference compared to the 2017 and 2021 cycles is that the market was more "instinctive" and less dependent on news (Trump, FOMC, rates, etc).

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🐻Today a brief focus on the functioning of native tokens on Berachain. Berachain is a layer1 with a different consensus method: delegated proof of liquidity. Berachain Ecosystem has 2 tokens+1 stablecoin: 1) BERA (gas fee) 2) BGT (non-transferable Governance token, obtained by providing liquidity) 3) HONEY (stablecoin) Users deposit liquidity (LP) and obtain BGT. They then delegate BGT to validators (who produce blocks for the network), obtaining rewards. Validators pass the emissions to liquidity pools that return them to users (LP) in the form of BGT. This is a loop. To pay for transactions, BERA is used, which is also used by validators to produce blocks (the base fee, as on Ethereum, is burned. The other part goes to validators as block rewards and to delegators). BGT can be burned 1:1 in exchange for BERA. So through Proof of Liquidity: the BGT delegation token is decoupled from the BERA gas token. Furthermore, BGT can only be earned by providing liquidity and not purchased on the open market.

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⭕When you decide to invest in a "long term" token (years), the most important thing to check is tokenomics. Low circulation with high FDV and presale are big red flags. ⚠️Low circulation means...long term many unlocks and inflation. If a lot of supply is unlocked over the years, even with the same demand, the price will drop. ⚠️Unlocks: many people make the mistake of believing that "unlocks" relatively influence the price because "it depends on VC and insiders whether they will sell or not". Wrong. On the day of the unlock nothing happens but it is discounted in the previous months (take a look at the price action of $Tia which went from $21 to $3 in 1 year). The same will be true for $Ondo which in the following months will have a "ballast" to carry around. ❌Do you really believe that a VC that is making 150x because he bought at a price 100 times lower than yours, will hold it over the years?

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These are Michael Saylor's principles. We'll see in the future if they will always respect it. As I said in a thread a few days ago, their strategy of issuing debt to buy more BTC is brilliant, however it is essential that they have reserves aside to repay the bondholders (avoiding selling BTC).

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🏦Kraken announced the delisting of USDT, TUSD, PYUSD (why?) and EURT. Coinbase and Crypto com have also delisted some stuff. MiCA will be a disaster for Europe because they are trying to regularize a sector that is different from all the others and which was created precisely to contrast the "classic" one. Keep your assets in non-custodial wallets and away from these scammers!

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( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Remember that volatility is our friend, do not use high leverage. Buy spot, hodl waiting for better times and if you invested in a good asset you had results. Also if you do not swap in stablecoin you have not had any loss. However this new geometric figure is fun!

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👥📉👤 What happened in the last 24 hours? Manipulation or normal retracement? A few days ago I talked about the false movements (bull and bear traps) that for weeks have been triggering both long and short liquidations. Indeed, it seems that between Binance, Coinbase and the market maker Wintermute there have been strange movements and assets with the aim of manipulating the market. ⭕Circular Trading is a technique in which market makers exchange assets between each other without real demand, generating artificial volume and manipulating prices. Market makers can then dump large amounts of assets into the markets, creating excess supply over real demand --> stop loss, liquidations, flash crash. It seems that this closed cycle has occurred: 🔳Binance sells assets to Wintermute. 🔳Wintermute sells the same assets to Coinbase. 🔳Coinbase sells again to Binance.

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📈📉In these months for those who trade "seriously" there are many losses because the market (especially ETH) is heavily manipulated. There are many false movements (breakouts: bull and bear traps) and liquidations. These large liquidations occur in one direction, then the market restarts in the opposite direction. Both "short" and "long" are liquidated.All this with BTC remaining immobile in its 87-103k range. Regarding the spot market, doing "buy the dip" on ETH and altcoins with BTC practically stationary exposes you to enormous risks if BTC breaks down and seriously retraces. If BTC retraces, assuming that 2025 is a bullish year, there you can do "buy the dip" on BTC, ETH and some altcoins. However, as long as BTC remains in its range with ETH and altcoins drying up...the risk is very high.

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🏦Have you ever wondered what strategy Michael Saylor has adopted? Saylor, executive director of MicroStrategy, has been using an innovative strategy to increase the value of the company for years: issuing debt to buy Bitcoin. MicroStrategy, founded in the 1980s, often recorded losses until, in 2020, it began financing the purchase of BTC through convertible bonds. Key points of the strategy: ✅Issuance of convertible bonds: bonds with a five-year maturity and rates lower than 1%. ✅Purchase of Bitcoin: use of the capital raised to buy BTC, betting on its future appreciation. ✅Increase in share value: if BTC rises, the value of MicroStrategy shares also increases in leverage (over time, however, the growth will be lower because the emissions will dilute the price). Why buy bonds and not BTC or Microstrategy stock?

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