finance

Something I don’t understand about market optimists right now:

Unemployment is increasing. Historically, once that starts it’s extremely rare for it to stop without a recession. What am I missing?

musician & dev gigameshmusic.com github.com/gigamesh

I guess the optimist take is the fed has managed the soft landing so far and will likely cut rates fast enough? 🧐

I think the optimist take is probably part rate cut and part that the workforce participation rate has been trending up. So the rise in unemployment could be partially people entering the workforce, rather than people losing their jobs.