zhenghuanyue
@zhenghuanyue
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This time, Powell has made it clear that QE will not be launched if the interest rate is not lowered to zero, but zero interest rate is not a necessary condition for launching QE. Recession and revitalization are the reasons, or even the main reasons, for the Fed to choose QE.
But recession brings about a sharp decline. The average decline of the S&P 500 caused by recession is about 50%, while it is only 10% now. So if it is a recession, then the S&P 500 is just the beginning of the decline. Or to put it more clearly, if there is a recession, the probability of the US stock market entering a bear market is infinite. In fact, in the past 12 economic recessions in the United States, except for one or two additional recessions, the others were deep bear markets. 0 reply
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