someone-build

MegaParlay - a betting game where you have to pick 6 events with <10% likelihood at the time the market is made. $1 to enter, the pot rolls over until someone wins

Building @onit the first continuous outcome prediction market | backed by @safe | writing: https://paragraph.xyz/@jamesmccomish

wouldn’t it be sufficiently cheap to pay 2^6 to guarantee a win? given a large enough pool size

not really, it's $1 to enter so you'd expect to break even if you (alone) bought 1e6 entries

'given a large enough pool size' is true - if the pot is >$1M you have a positive expected value on playing, so you could buy multiple entries and hope to win. 

but the fact that they are real world events means that although the quoted odds are <10%, some people will think they know something people don't, so they are encouraged to play even when the EV is negative. 

hard part is convincing the first lot of people to play. think by making your bets social and sharing the ridiculous combos you've chosen could get a bit of the way there, but not sure