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bchow pfp
bchow
@bchow
Discussed a big hand from this game w/ @xatron and I really liked the line he took. 🧵 My first attempt at a hand study
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bchow
@bchow
Hero (@xatron) is in the small blind with Qd10d and UTG (me - villain) raises to 5 BB. UTG +1 ( @hlau ), the button ( @toadyhawk.eth ) and hero call
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bchow
@bchow
Flop comes 9h8s5d. Hero checks. UTG continuation bets for ~10.5 BB (1/2 pot). UTG +1 folds and the button calls. Hero has outs to a straight, two overcards, and marginal flush draw. Hero calls.
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bchow
@bchow
Turn comes 7c, board is now 9h8s5d7c. Hero checks. Villain bets 26.2 bb (1/2) pot. Button folds. Hero now has 4 outs to the nut straight, 4 outs to a 10 high straight and 6 outs to top pair. 9% nuts (4/46) 9% 10 high straight (4/46) 13% top pair (6/46)
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bchow
@bchow
Hero range easily contains connectors >= 4/5o as well as any pocket pairs >= 5’s and Ace-x suited. Villain range is a bit tighter, probably only comprising suited connectors but also any pocket pairs >= 5’s and Ace-x suited, but the 10 and queen are blocked for villain.
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bchow
@bchow
Hero has at least 9% pot equity for the nut straight. Let’s say 7.5% pot equity for the 10 high straight. Against villain’s range we could reasonably assume 10 high straight is good against their range excluding any 6’s (chop) and J-10 (lose).
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bchow pfp
bchow
@bchow
Let’s say 2.5% pot equity for top pair - it only beats lower Ace-x suited. Altogether let’s say we have 20% pot equity (rounding up), we are getting 3:1 to call. We only need our opponent to fold 6.25% (5%/80%) of their winning range to make this a profitable semi-bluff spot
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bchow
@bchow
Hero raises 131 bb (1.66 pot) to go all in. Villain calls and shows Jh10h - the nut straight. Feels bad River comes Ac, and villain wins the pot
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bchow
@bchow
Altogether I think it was a strong line by @xatron given the board texture, but sometimes you just run up against the nuts. Let me know what y'all think of this hand study! Not sure if I incorporated fold equity correctly (5% vs 6.25% necessary for profit?) Thanks again to @ted for hosting
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Brian Brennan
@xatron
Nice hand eval! I can guarantee you I wasn’t thinking about it this in depth in the moment😂my thought process was I’ve got nothing but draws and thought I could get you off most things besides the nuts, and w/ blocking the 10 just went for it. Looking forward to the next game
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bchow pfp
bchow
@bchow
😂 I had to furiously rub my two brain cells together to put together this write up. I think having the 10 is a good enough heuristic to ship it in this spot and I would probably have the same thought process live in your spot lmao
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