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In retrospect, the current market has similarities to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, but there are also significant differences. in 2018, bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $3,200, a decline of more than 80%, accompanied by the bursting of the ICO bubble and a contraction in trading volume; in 2022, it fell from $69,000 to $16,000, a decline of about 76%, impacted by the collapse of FTX and the hike in interest rates . Currently, Bitcoin is down ~7%-13% from its highs to $82,000, a far cry from historical bear market levels.

The similarities lie in declining trading volume and market fragmentation. For example, CEX turnover is down 70% from its peak in 2018, while currently down only 23.7%. The differences are in institutional participation and the emergence of ETFs, which provide a new buffer mechanism for the market. As such, the current panic may be a period of correction rather than a full-blown bear market, but if ETF outflows continue to expand, historical tragedy may repeat itself.