Why #DeSci will Fix Academia with Prediction Markets: a 🧵 (including an example!)

2/ We need a way of doing science for hypotheses that are "non-obvious" yet "provable".

3/ Imagine a platform called "Futures of Science," a prediction market where anyone can propose and bet on scientific theories.

4/ By betting on experiment outcomes, researchers can measure community confidence, allocate resources more efficiently, and accelerate discoveries.

5/ These markets act as a dynamic peer review mechanism, reflecting community belief in a hypothesis's validity even before traditional reviews.

6/ Prediction markets could democratize science, opening up participation to anyone with insights, and offering a chance to profit.

7/ Example: Let's say someone proposes that "Chili peppers reduce the risk of heart disease."

8/ A bet of $10 is placed on this prediction; if the bet is lost, the winner receives $9.

9/ The remaining $1 from the original bet is used to fund an unbiased third party, like a clinical research organization, to conduct the experiment.

10/ This financial model ensures every bet contributes to further scientific investigation, enhancing the pursuit of knowledge.

11/ This system makes validating scientific experiments as easy as pointing and clicking, enabling anyone, regardless of their background, to participate.

1/ Traditional research often moves slowly, focusing on hypotheses that are either too simplistic or complex and unprovable.