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@vientin
27% of Solana’s Outflows Shifted to SUI in the Past Month
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@keongot
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@sontungmtp.eth
In particular, the media has highlighted the role of prediction markets in capturing the impact of unexpected events. For instance, Polymarket accurately predicted President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, with the market pricing a 66% chance of Biden dropping out, post-debate, even while he publicly denied it. This prediction was later validated when Biden officially announced his withdrawal, showcasing the market’s ability to provide accurate forecasts of future events at a pace in which mainstream political punditry and traditional polling cannot compete with.
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Mytam.eth
@chanhday
For example, Polymarket's odds tracking on the 2024 presidential race was highlighted by prominent investment research firm, Bernstein Research, due to the platform's growing influence in shaping public perception of the viability of each candidate. When Trump's odds fluctuated on platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt following various political events, media outlets readily utilized such data in their reporting on the status of the horse race. This real-time feedback loop between prediction markets and media coverage has created a more dynamic and interactive environment for political analysis.
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Hejustin
@conmeo
Prediction markets like Polymarket have significantly influenced public perception and media coverage of the 2024 election. These markets offer a continuous stream of data that reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants. As such, they provide a more nuanced and real-time picture of the electoral landscape compared to traditional polling methods.
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Khế Ngọt
@khengot
On Polymarket, Harris’s odds have seen a significant increase, reflecting her strengthened position in the Democratic Party. As of late July 2024, Polymarket users gave Harris a 92% chance of securing the Democratic nomination, following Biden's endorsement and her rising support from top Democrats. Harris's odds of winning the popular vote were nearly tied with Trump, with Harris at 44% and Trump at 45%.
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Lam-May
@lammay
Polymarket, for instance, has provided real-time odds on these political dynamics, reflecting shifts in public sentiment and media coverage. When Biden announced his withdrawal and endorsed Harris, Polymarket saw a surge in bets favoring Harris as the Democratic nominee. This shift was not only a reflection of Biden's endorsement but also a response to Harris's growing support within the Democratic Party and among influential political figures.
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Nguyễn Phương Nhi
@beautiverse
The 2024 US presidential election cycle has become a pivotal event for prediction markets, illustrating their growing influence and reliability. Leading up to the election, the political landscape has been marked by significant shifts, controversies, and public interest, all of which have been mirrored in the activity on prediction platforms like Polymarket.
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Matngot
@matngot
As underscored in a July 2nd tweet by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, “Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s,” this reinforces his long–standing public praise for prediction markets as the “holy grail” technology that, if executed properly, can finally usher in a democratized source of truth. This paper will delve into the accelerating growth of prediction markets, examining both the structural drivers and unique aspects that have led to Polymarket's dominant position.
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Đà Nẵng
@chetruoi
In recent years, prediction markets have witnessed accelerated growth, driven by structural factors such as the democratization of information and technological advancements and idiosyncratic factors exemplified by platforms like Polymarket. Polymarket, the leading prediction market platform by volume, serves as a compelling case study for understanding the forces propelling the proliferation of prediction markets and their emerging role in modern society.
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Cây Thúi
@chicken
Prediction markets are a powerful testament to the internet's ability to aggregate collective wisdom and provide insights into future events. These markets, which allow individuals to bet on the outcomes of various events, leverage participants' diverse knowledge and opinions to generate highly accurate predictions. As these markets grow in popularity and liquidity, they are increasingly recognized for their potential to serve as reliable sources of foresight in fields ranging from politics to insurance, finance, entertainment, and beyond—practically any industry can benefit from more comprehensive datasets.
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Gacon
@gacon
In contrast, Trump has maintained a strong lead in the Republican primaries, with Polymarket consistently favoring him to win the presidency. As of July 2024, Trump had a 64% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 34%. Trump's dominance in key swing states like Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania has solidified his position as the frontrunner.
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