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Ryan
@ryanfmason
Going by Polymarket odds, Kamala’s odds of getting the nomination have increased much faster than her odds of winning the general election. Up to 92% chance of nominee but only 35% chance of winning the general. Shouldn’t either major party candidate have something like 45-50%? Is she that bad of a candidate or is there something else being priced in?
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Victor
@victoreram
If her general election head to head probability is 45-50% then multiplying that by being conditional on winning the nomination (92%) gives 40-45% of winning the general election. The former is obviously uncertain though. If you take her nomination as guaranteed then Kamala looks underpriced.
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Ryan
@ryanfmason
Yeah there seems to be a disconnect between how certain people are about her nomination and how much of a boost the official nomination should give her
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