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71 Following

14 Followers

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@cjh Would appreciate a fav market list. Would also be cool if any daily fav’d markets get updated. Thoughts?

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PG’s founder mode essay is odd. It’s objectively less insightful than his other essays and has disproportionately picked up coverage. It feels like a rediscovery of things he has written about prior and are not new to the startup space. It also strawmans MBAs. PG is at best accidentally coining the term ‘founder mode’ and then predicting it will become a common term. Some of the subsequent comments on it being a seminal essay are super cringe.

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Limitless.exchange is down?

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Many times on Thiel JRE podcast Rogan misunderstands Thiel by taking him far too literally. Thiel is always v abstract. Good pod.

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FC feels very small. The power law distribution of channels means if you aren’t an ETH dev or willing to partake in FC infighting there isn’t much here. Polymarket discord chatter is 100x FC.

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What RWA cos/protocols are represented here?

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Far too many Polymarket crypto markets are either direct extensions of the options markets or massively unlikely dumb money markets, where the Yes crowd is delusionally buying massively -EV lottery tickets and the No crowd is just eating a massive opportunity cost, earning say 3% returns for 4 months of capital lock up. Thoughts?

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At current prices there are 6-7% 4 month yields available arb'ing the SOL and ETH 2024 ATH markets..

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One for the crypto options traders: Are SOL and ETH equally likely to hit ATHs in Q3 (according to options markets)? Feels surprising to me. Both are ~55% off but SOL has much clearer +ve momentum. It's interesting that they are both 12% to hit ATH in Q3.

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Crypto transactions still annoy me. Let me specify the receival amount, not the send amount. I want exactly $X or Y crypto tokens in the receiving address, make the send amount slightly off a round number to account for fees. My starting Polymarket balance is $998.81 🙃

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My first like is from someone's malfunctioning bot. I would love to endorse [Brand Name] and [Product] but alas they are a mystery..

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An open q in my mind is how the RWA space fragments over time. If its purely a q of liquidity/network effects we may see a power law of large players offering all RWA investment types, and crypto users purely invest based on yield and crude risk profiling. Or maybe sector specific protocols/tokenomics outcompete for their niche (say private credit). Any thoughts?

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The promise of RWA's is the promise of a positive sum sustainable yield source for crypto. Too much of crypto yield today is purely price risk and inflation of token supply.

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Literal first though on Warpcast on mobile is that text is too small.

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