MARKET PERSPECTIVE FROM A MACRO AND GEOPOLITICAL VIEWPOINT: WHY TRUMP WANTS THE MARKET TO COLLAPSE… IN THE SHORT TERM

The chart below summarizes why the current U.S. administration is doing this and why it has a negative impact on the market.

1. The U.S. has $7 trillion in debt that needs to be paid off in the next 6 months. If they don’t pay it off, they’ll have to refinance (in other words, borrow new debt to pay off old debt).

2. The Trump administration doesn’t want to refinance at interest rates above 4%. The 10-year Treasury yield has, at times, reached as high as 4.8% this year.

3. How do you bring down the 10-year Treasury yield?

- The market needs to show signs of weakening growth.
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) needs to be perceived as effective.
- Interest rates need to drop.

City: Melbourne, Saigon
Work: MS Dynamics 365 Project Manager (CRM/BC)
Crypto Holding: BTC, ETH
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**Short-term pain for long-term gain?** However, it’s worth noting that:

1. Tariffs in the short term will also increase inflation, reducing the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates. That said, according to economic observers, a slowing economy will have a stronger deflationary effect than the inflationary impact of tariffs making goods more expensive (if goods are too costly, people stop buying, cut spending, and the economy cools). Too much instability in the stock market. Investors are selling stocks and buying bonds!

2. Additionally, another point to consider is that if the instability becomes too great and the economy cools too quickly, the U.S. could head straight into a recession. This is something no one wants because, at that point, all markets would dump heavily, and safe-haven assets like gold would surge. Bitcoin hasn’t yet experienced a recession, so it’s unclear how it would react, as it currently sits between two narratives: a store of value or a risky asset (similar to tech stocks).

**Personal Plan:**
Honestly, the situation right now is quite unpredictable. On one hand, liquidity has returned (the ISM index crossed above 50, as I mentioned in a previous post), and the global liquidity cycle is currently entering a phase of recovery (rising liquidity tends to boost risky assets). On the other hand, it feels like a recession might be looming. So, I’ve decided:

1. I’ll continue buying BTC below $85k, keeping my portfolio’s cash allocation at around 8-9% so I can remain bullish over the next 6 months, while also having cash on hand to buy cheap if a recession hits.

2. For altcoins, I’ll keep streamlining my portfolio, cutting low-cap coins and only holding a few trend-based altcoins like RWA, AI, and DeSci. For the rest, I’ll stick with $ETH and coins with buy-back-and-burn policies or revenue-sharing models like $AAVE, $MKR, $ENA, $UNI, $JUP, etc.

3. Portfolio target for the next 6 months: 70% BTC, 10% Cash, 15% ETH, and 5% other altcoins.

The way to achieve this (at least in the short term) is to create significant instability — for example, through tariffs — to slow growth in the short term. When that happens, the bond market will immediately buy bonds out of fear of investing in stocks (or crypto and other risky assets). This drives bond yields down (which is what the Trump administration wants to refinance the debt), while also creating conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates and inject money (ending quantitative tightening [QT] and starting quantitative easing [QE]), further pushing bond yields lower.