The race to AGI is fascinating because unlike most recent macro technology shifts:

1. Not biased for startups -- Both incumbents and startups are at the frontier; unclear if disruptive or sustaining innovation

2. Top talent heavy -- The top 100 people (top 10?) are differentiated talent; feels like the NBA; other technology shifts are more market tailwind + execution

3. No network effect -- It seems like the core technology (foundational models) are not platforms / network effects (and are being rapidly commoditized by open source); the stronger moat is brand recognition and paid customers / subscriptions; Nvidia may be the exception

Open source may commoditize foundational models, but could early adopters of AGI applications create a snowball effect? like, a head start in AGI-powered healthcare or finance. does that become a hard to cross moat for others?