Intoxicasting per zinger request. What should we talk about

product designer @alchemyplatform | everything is experimental |
a decade+ of consumer products | farcaster godview: /intelligent | self exploration: /tanishq

I don’t think so, though IMO “bull/bear market” + “cycles” is not as productive framing anymore as it once was

I agree with you, and hence the topic suggestion, so we could explore what's a good mental frame for the market

This is a great way to see it

 US legitimizing crypto as industry could be a huge driver of expansion

Although it might feel that expectation was priced-in already, but we're yet to see the true consequences of it. More tokenization = more value on chain = higher-liquidity, other nations follow and loop

The way i try to look at it now is, there are periods of expansion and contraction - the goal is to think about (and hopefully predict) what drives each

2020/21 was driven by massive liquidity injections by the US govt — then they stopped that and hiked up rates and we entered a bear market

Q423/Q124 were driven by Bitcoin ETF — then we cooled off, chopped for a while, and Q424 was driven by Trump election. Now we’ve contracted again driven by economic fears and filling the expectations/reality dislocation around Trump economic policy

Now we must figure out what the range of outcomes is for future drivers of either further contraction, OR return to expansion