aichannel

I don't know if this is correct. The author is also biased because he's an investor in xAI.

That said, if you're thinking about how the AI market will play out over the next 12-18 months, worth considering if you have a point of view on each of his claims, e.g. pre-training vs. inference, differentiated data, data center glut, etc.

OpenAI had a significant lead from summer 2022 through spring 2024 when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling “law” for pre-training.

Being first to reasoning with o1 only… https://t.co/7mxyC4RbJR

Gavin Baker

I don't know if this is correct. The author is also biased because he's an investor in xAI.

That said, if you're thinking about how the AI market will play out over the next 12-18 months, worth considering if you have a point of view on each of his claims, e.g. pre-training vs. inference, differentiated data, data center glut, etc.

https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1893348988386189774

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

Making predictions when power law is part of the equation is a tricky task.