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When Will AI Become Truly Autonomous?
Predicting the exact timeline for AGI is difficult, but experts generally fall into three camps:
1. Optimists (5–20 years) – Some researchers believe AGI could emerge within the next two decades, driven by advances in deep learning, reinforcement learning, and scaling laws (e.g., OpenAI’s work with large models like GPT-4 and Gemini).
2. Moderates (20–50 years) – Others argue that current AI lacks fundamental reasoning, common sense, and robust world models.
3. Skeptics (50+ years or never) – Some believe AGI might require entirely new paradigms, such as quantum computing or brain-computer interfaces, and could take much longer—or might not happen at all.
What’s the Next Big Breakthrough?
To achieve AGI, several key advancements are likely needed:
• Self-Supervised Learning at Scale – Current AI models rely heavily on large datasets, but true AGI will need to learn in a more human-like way, with minimal supervision. 0 reply
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