From Ukraine last year, to Nagorno-Karabakh last month and now Israel, it really does feel like there's a trend of people becoming more comfortable with using large-scale unilateral violence to solve problems. That trend itself greatly worries me; each instance normalizes and legitimizes the next.

Ideology is now taking center stage once more, rather than practical considerations & cooperation. The invasion into Ukraine definitely started the polarization cascade that is now causing heightened tensions.

There's now proof that national self-defense can't be left emaciated, as it invites adversarial attacks.

I worry that it's something worse than ideology: it's resentment.

🤔
Just off the top of my head of possible sources for the cascade: Resentment, desires for legacy, nationalistic pride, short-term-ism, ideological misalignment, nostalgia, & de-neutralization.

There's a muddy mixture of any of the above within each nation willing to go down this path, with little ways out of it.